Brexit is set to deliver a much-heralded jobs boom with over 80,000 new roles to be created – in Frankfurt.
A new report released by lobby group Frankfurt Main Finance found that the expected influx of 10,000 financial services staff over the next four years – fuelled by relocation plans and a banking exodus from London – will result in the creation of up to 87,667 new roles throughout the Rhein-Main-Region.
The study measured Brexit’s effect on non-financial job growth in the city and the surrounding region across industries as diverse as real estate, auto trade, healthcare and technical services, and the rise in tax receipts for local government. It predicts an extra 191 million euros (£176 million) in local tax revenues for Frankfurt per year, when accounting for the additional income tax, value-added tax and local business tax.
Even based on the report’s “prudent” scenario, the Brexit ripple effect would result in at least 35,913 new jobs outside of financial services, and an additional 136 million euros (£125 million) in annual tax revenues for Frankfurt.
“The job growth will further advance the economic strength of Frankfurt and the region. A real success story for all parties involved,” Hubertus Vath, managing director of Frankfurt Main Finance, said.
“Now, it is important to absorb and shape this growth positively. That is a challenge. However, the additional jobs also bring the funds to invest and master the challenge.”
The news is another bitter blow to Brexit backers including Boris Johnson, who last year predicted that as many as 300,000 new jobs would be created within the UK if the country voted to leave the EU. The now-foreign secretary was citing research from the Vote Leave campaign which claimed that the UK had missed out on 284,000 jobs due to the European Union’s failure to strike trade agreements with the likes of Japan, India and the US.
Instead, jobs across several sectors have been lost and the country’s powerhouse financial services industry has seen a steady stream of bankers shifted from the City into the EU, costing the Treasury millions in lost tax receipts. Frankfurt is emerging as the main beneficiary of a post-Brexit jobs boom, securing commitments from a number of international banks, including Standard Chartered, since the referendum last year.
Citigroup has also notified its bankers of plans to bolster its Frankfurt office, creating 150 jobs, while the Press Association understands Morgan Stanley is on track to move as many as 200 staff. Mizuho will join a raft of Japanese banks who have chosen the German financial centre as an EU hub, including Daiwa, Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (SMFG) and Nomura.
Germany’s own Deutsche Bank notified staff in July that it was likely to book the “vast majority” of its assets out of Frankfurt – where its headquarters are based – after the UK leaves the EU. That is in addition to JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs, which are set to bolster operations in various EU cities including Frankfurt.
The London exodus is on track to revive the German financial sector, which at the end of 2016 accounted for around 13% of the local Frankfurt labour market compared to 15% in 2008. “Adding 10,000 jobs to the financial industry would mean a substantial shift into this sector,” the report by Frankfurt Main Finance explained.