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		</div><p><a href="http://londonglossy.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/cbi-downgrades-growth-forecast.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full" title="CBI has downgraded its forecast for quarterly growth in the first three months of the year" src="http://londonglossy.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/12/min-cbi-downgrades-growth-forecast.jpg" alt="CBI has downgraded its forecast for quarterly growth in the first three months of the year"/></a></p>
<p>The UK economy will grow just 0.2% in the first quarter of 2011, as Government job cuts and higher-than-expected inflation slow the recovery.</p>
<p>Industry body CBI downgraded its forecast for quarterly growth in the first three months of the year from 0.3%, but said it did not expect the UK to fall back into recession.</p>
<p>The growth should gather pace to 0.4% in the second quarter and 0.5% for each of the third and fourth quarters, giving a 2% annual growth rate for the year.</p>
<p>The CBI also made its first estimate for gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2012, which it expects to be 2.4%, which it said was slower than usual for the third year of a recovery from recession.</p>
<p>The UK&#8217;s economy has shown strong growth in 2010, with quarterly GDP having grown 0.4%, 1.2% and 0.8% in the first three quarters, and expected to grow by 0.5% in the fourth quarter.</p>
<p>The sluggish growth in the first quarter of 2011 will be caused by consumers reacting to the increase in VAT from 17.5% to 20% on January 4 and by the Government making redundancies.</p>
<p>The CBI expects inflation to be higher than forecast throughout 2011, as energy and commodity prices remain high and push up household bills.</p>
<p>Consumer price inflation (CPI) will remain above the Bank of England&#8217;s (BoE) 2% target for the whole of 2011 and will dip below target at the start of 2012 before finishing 2012 at 2.4%, according to the CBI&#8217;s forecast.</p>
<p>Inflation has already been above 2% for 12 months in a row and is currently at 3.3%.</p>
<p>The continued high inflation next year will force the BoE to gradually raise interest rates in the spring and the base rate will hit 2.75% by the final quarter of 2012.</p>
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