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		</div><p>No assessment of the economic implications of leaving the EU without a trade deal has been undertaken by the UK Government since last year&#8217;s referendum, Brexit Secretary David Davis has said. </p>
<p>Mr Davis confirmed that leaving under World Trade Organisation rules would mean tariffs of 30-40% on agricultural exports and 10% on cars, the loss of EHIC health insurance cards for travellers and passporting rights for financial sector firms, as well as departure from the EU-US Open Skies arrangements for air transport.</p>
<p>But he said it will be possible to devise mitigating action in response to these issues, and it would be &#8220;otiose&#8221; to estimate their economic impact until that work has been done.</p>
<p>He told the House of Commons Exiting the EU Committee that he expected to be able to provide forecasts in about a year&#8217;s time.</p>
<p>His comments came as the European Council president Donald Tusk said that Europe will not be &#8220;intimidated&#8221; by British threats to walk away from trade talks if it cannot get a good deal.</p>
<p>In a statement to the European Parliament, Mr Tusk dismissed suggestions that a failure to reach agreement in Brexit talks would be worse for the EU than for Britain, telling MEPs: &#8220;A &#8216;no-deal scenario&#8217; would be bad for everyone, but above all for the UK.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mr Davis has briefed Cabinet colleagues to be ready for the &#8220;unlikely scenario&#8221; of the UK crashing out of the EU without a deal &#8211; a prospect which Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson said this weekend would be &#8220;perfectly OK&#8221;.</p>
<p>Prime Minister Theresa May has made clear that she regards no deal with the EU as being better than a bad deal. Asked whether he thought leaving without a deal would be bad for the UK, Mr Davis told the committee: &#8220;I think it is not as good an outcome as a free trade, friction-free, open agreement, which is why we are trying for that.&#8221;</p>
<p>Confirming that no assessments of the economic impact of failure to reach a deal had been carried out since his appointment as Brexit Secretary, Mr Davis told the committee&#8217;s chair Hilary Benn: &#8220;Any forecast you make depends on the mitigation you make, and therefore it would be rather otiose to do that forecast before we have concluded what mitigation is possible.&#8221;</p>
<p>But he added: &#8220;You haven&#8217;t asked me about the upsides &#8211; for roughly 60% of our trade we could relax things the other way.&#8221; Explaining Mrs May&#8217;s &#8220;no deal is better than a bad deal&#8221; mantra, Mr Davis said: &#8220;She said that because in the emotional aftermath of the referendum, there were lots of threats of punishment deals and all the rest of it.</p>
<p>&#8220;We had to be clear that we could actually manage this in such a way as to be better than a bad deal, and that is true. &#8220;I can&#8217;t quantify it for you yet. I may well be able to do so in a year&#8217;s time. It&#8217;s not as frightening as some people think, but it&#8217;s not as simple as some people think.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mr Davis took a swipe at Mr Johnson&#8217;s TV interview comments, telling the committee: &#8220;I do my job on the basis of facts and data and research and analysis and operational planning, and off the back of that I will give answers that are accurate and factual &#8211; not throwaway lines in interviews, factual answers.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mr Benn responded: &#8220;Perhaps you should do all the interviews on this, rather than some of your colleagues.&#8221;<br />
The Brexit Secretary said he expected royal assent to be granted on Thursday to the Bill giving Mrs May the power to start withdrawal negotiations.</p>
<p>But he declined to discuss the contents of the letter informing the European Council of Britain&#8217;s intention to withdraw, which the Prime Minister is due to send to Brussels by the end of March. He denied that the Government had postponed a plan to issue the letter on Tuesday this week, saying this would not have been possible because of the timing of royal assent.</p>
<p>Mr Davis said the Government had not yet been presented with a &#8220;divorce bill&#8221; by Brussels, amid reports suggesting the EU may demand as much as 60 billion euros (£52 billion) to cover outstanding liabilities owed by the UK.</p>
<p>&#8220;We haven&#8217;t seen anything,&#8221; said the Brexit Secretary. &#8220;Our stance is pretty straightforward &#8211; we are a law-abiding nation, we believe in international systems of rules and we obey them. &#8220;We have rights and obligations and we will insist on one and meet the other.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mr Davis acknowledged that the two-year negotiations over Brexit would &#8220;blow hot and cold&#8221; and that there would be &#8220;times when we disagree&#8221;. But he insisted that a good deal was &#8220;eminently achievable&#8221; because it was in the interests of member states to continue to enjoy free trade arrangements with the UK.</p>
<p>&#8220;From talking to member states&#8217; foreign secretaries, finance ministers and prime ministers, there is a growing determination to get a constructive outcome. &#8220;The issue is whether the member states&#8217; voices make it through to the Commission.&#8221;</p>
<p>He added: &#8220;My general view is that this is eminently achievable because the attitude of the European states is one which will want a good long-term relationship.</p>
<p>&#8220;Even this morning when Mr Tusk was saying sharp things, he said we want to be friends and we want to have an amicable long-term relationship.</p>
<p>&#8220;That desire, that wish, that commonality of culture and commonality of interest, is what I think will drive this in the long run, rather than any negotiating gambits we use.&#8221;</p>
<p>Following Mr Davis&#8217;s admission that no estimate had been made of the costs of leaving without a deal, Labour committee member Pat McFadden told the Brexit Secretary: &#8220;Without an assessment, you have mortgaged the country&#8217;s economic future to a soundbite.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mr Davis responded: &#8220;I have a fairly clear view of how it will work out, I just haven&#8217;t quantified it yet. We will get a quantification later on, but it is quite plain how it will work out </p>
<p>&#8220;On the one hand, we have the aim of a good comprehensive free trade agreement. In the event we don&#8217;t get that or there is no conclusion, we will have a fairly extensive contingency plan, which is already under way.</p>
<p>&#8220;And we will have, whatever happens, a sharply improved access to the rest of the world off the back of a large number of free trade agreements which will be coming into effect shortly after we leave &#8211; or some of them will be.&#8221;</p>
<p>Speaking outside the committee hearing, shadow Brexit secretary Sir Keir Starmer said: &#8220;The Government is recklessly talking up the idea of crashing out of the EU with no deal. They have repeated the mantra that &#8216;no deal is better than a bad deal&#8217;.</p>
<p>&#8220;But we now know they have made no assessment of the economic impact of the Prime Minister failing to secure a deal.</p>
<p>&#8220;What&#8217;s clear, from the CBI and others, is that there is no result that would be worse for the British economy than leaving with no deal; no deal would be the worst possible deal. The Government should rule out this dangerous and counter-productive threat before Article 50 is triggered.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mr Davis insisted there was only a &#8220;tiny probability&#8221; of the UK leaving the EU without a deal. Asked whether Parliament would be given a vote on this scenario, he replied: &#8220;We will no doubt make a statement to the House of Commons and it is up to the House what it wants to do.&#8221;</p>
<p>He issued a plea to Brexit-supporting ministers to avoid belligerent rhetoric over Europe, telling the committee: &#8220;I will continue to say to colleagues, &#8216;Keep this as calm as possible and as amicable as possible&#8217;.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s very, very important that we ensure that the mood and temperature of our exchanges is controlled and, as far as possible, amicable. &#8220;There will be times when the negotiations will get tough, I&#8217;m sure, but tough does not mean spiteful or angry.&#8221;</p>
<p>Despite Mrs May&#8217;s promise in July 2016 that she would not trigger Article 50 until she had secured a &#8220;UK-wide approach&#8221; to negotiations, Mr Davis acknowledged that differences still remain with the Scottish Government.</p>
<p>&#8220;We haven&#8217;t got to a position where we are in an identical position, but we are very close on a lot of issues, but not all,&#8221; he told SNP committee member Joanna Cherry.</p>
<p>He accused the Scottish National Party of &#8220;political point-scoring&#8221; and said: &#8220;I&#8217;m afraid the stance of the Scottish Government has been a very political one, not necessarily in the interest of the people they represent.&#8221;</p>
<p>Mr Davis said that there may not be any further meeting of the Joint Ministerial Committee &#8211; which brings together ministers from the UK Government and devolved administrations &#8211; before Article 50 is triggered, but said he expected the Government to have &#8220;conversations&#8221; with devolved authorities before the letter is sent.</p>
<p>Liberal Democrat committee member Alistair Carmichael asked in a statement: &#8220;How can Theresa May claim that no deal is better than a bad deal, when her Government hasn&#8217;t even assessed what damage a chaotic hard Brexit would do?</p>
<p>&#8220;It is the equivalent of driving towards a cliff-edge with a blindfold on. It is appalling that this Government is days away from triggering Article 50, yet still hasn&#8217;t properly thought through the consequences of its reckless approach.&#8221;</p>
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