Boris Johnson is on course to win the UK General Election with a comfortable 68-seat majority by triumphing in Labour heartlands, according to a projection poll which accurately forecast the hung parliament in 2017.
The constituency-by-constituency estimate by YouGov, published in The Times, indicates that if the election was held on Thursday, the Conservative Party would win 359 seats, 42 more than they took in 2017.
It would also take 43% of the vote, and in number of seats this would be its best performance since 1987.
The results of the YouGov #GE2019 MRP model are finally here:
Con – 359 seats / 43% vote share
Lab – 211 / 32%
SNP – 43 / 3%
LD – 13 / 14%
Plaid – 4 / <1%
Green – 1 / 3%
Brexit Party – 0 / 3%
— YouGov (@YouGov) November 27, 2019
Labour, meanwhile, is set to lose 51 seats, falling from 262 seats in 2017 to 211 now, and taking 32% of the vote, a nine percentage point decrease.
This would be the party’s worst performance in seats won since 1983, YouGov said, adding that the opposition is on course to not take any new seats.
Of the 76 Labour-held seats where it leads the Tories by fewer than 8,000 votes, Jeremy Corbyn’s party is currently behind in 43 of them, according to the analysis which has been released just over two weeks before polling day.