UK coronavirus deaths may have reached 41,000, study finds

&Tab;&Tab;<div class&equals;"wpcnt">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<div class&equals;"wpa">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<span class&equals;"wpa-about">Advertisements<&sol;span>&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<div class&equals;"u top&lowbar;amp">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<amp-ad width&equals;"300" height&equals;"265"&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab; type&equals;"pubmine"&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab; data-siteid&equals;"111265417"&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab; data-section&equals;"1">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;<&sol;amp-ad>&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<&sol;div>&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<&sol;div>&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;<&sol;div><p>Deaths linked to coronavirus in the UK may have already reached 41&comma;000&comma; according to new analysis&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The Financial Times estimate is more than double the latest total announced by the British Department of Health&comma; which stood at 17&comma;337 at 5pm on April 20&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The Government’s figure is based almost entirely on the deaths of hospital patients who tested positive for Covid-19&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Differences in reporting mean this total can include a small number of deaths outside hospital that occurred in Scotland&comma; Wales and Northern Ireland&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The Financial Times has used separate figures published by the Office for National Statistics &lpar;ONS&rpar; and other sources to extrapolate the number of deaths beyond the Government total&comma; to better reflect what is happening in the wider community&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>It describes the figure of 41&comma;102 deaths by April 21 as a &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;<em>conservative estimate”&period;<&sol;em><&sol;p>&NewLine;<blockquote class&equals;"twitter-tweet" data-width&equals;"550" data-dnt&equals;"true">&NewLine;<p lang&equals;"en" dir&equals;"ltr">Getting all the data together and thinking hard about lag strutures makes it all more complex&comma; but the results have been tracking the cases&comma; especially in England &amp&semi; Wales<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&&num;8211&semi; note here yesterday&&num;39&semi;s all cause mortality registrations were about 2&comma;000 down due to the bank holiday <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;t&period;co&sol;UJxMnYu68h">pic&period;twitter&period;com&sol;UJxMnYu68h<&sol;a><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&mdash&semi; Chris Giles &lpar;&commat;ChrisGiles&lowbar;&rpar; <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;twitter&period;com&sol;ChrisGiles&lowbar;&sol;status&sol;1252846970198126592&quest;ref&lowbar;src&equals;twsrc&percnt;5Etfw">April 22&comma; 2020<&sol;a><&sol;p><&sol;blockquote>&NewLine;<p><script async src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;platform&period;twitter&period;com&sol;widgets&period;js" charset&equals;"utf-8"><&sol;script><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The ONS publishes figures on the number of coronavirus-related deaths in England and Wales occurring outside hospitals – in locations such as care homes – but they only come out once a week and there is a lag in compiling the data&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Its latest figures&comma; published on Tuesday&comma; were for deaths in the period up to April 10&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The Financial Times used the ONS data&comma; together with equivalent figures published by National Records of Scotland and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency&comma; to come up with a model that removes the delay in producing up-to-date figures&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Key to its calculations are the number of <em>&OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;excess deaths”<&sol;em> reported by these sources – in other words&comma; the number of death registrations compared with the average for the previous five years&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>There have been around 17&comma;000 excess deaths across the UK since mid-March&comma; but this number is over two weeks out of date due to the lag in reporting&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The FT extrapolated this number by drawing on daily reports published by NHS England of hospital deaths of patients who tested positive for Covid-19&comma; and scaling them up to reflect the wider community&comma; based on the proportion of people who typically die in hospital&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The estimate of 41&comma;102 deaths by April 21 includes more than 10&comma;000 in care homes&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<blockquote class&equals;"twitter-tweet" data-width&equals;"550" data-dnt&equals;"true">&NewLine;<p lang&equals;"en" dir&equals;"ltr">So&comma; this is where the 41&comma;000 figure comes from&period; <&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&&num;8211&semi; 17&comma;000 excess deaths so far but that is out of date and the following two weeks had stable and high levels of hospital deaths <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;t&period;co&sol;e6I7Nem65r">pic&period;twitter&period;com&sol;e6I7Nem65r<&sol;a><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&mdash&semi; Chris Giles &lpar;&commat;ChrisGiles&lowbar;&rpar; <a href&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;twitter&period;com&sol;ChrisGiles&lowbar;&sol;status&sol;1252847808480112640&quest;ref&lowbar;src&equals;twsrc&percnt;5Etfw">April 22&comma; 2020<&sol;a><&sol;p><&sol;blockquote>&NewLine;<p><script async src&equals;"https&colon;&sol;&sol;platform&period;twitter&period;com&sol;widgets&period;js" charset&equals;"utf-8"><&sol;script><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The analysis assumes the figures for excess deaths are a good measure of deaths directly or indirectly linked to coronavirus&comma; and also that there is a stable pattern between hospital Covid-19 deaths and all deaths&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>But the figures – which the FT said it will update daily – are another reminder of how the number of deaths announced by the Government is only a partial picture of the scale of the pandemic&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>For example&comma; ONS figures published on Tuesday showed that by April 10&comma; there had been 12&comma;516 deaths involving Covid-19 in England – which were registered up to April 18&period; The figure was 22&percnt; higher than the 10&comma;260 deaths in hospitals in England for the same period&comma; published by NHS England&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The ONS has said that from next week it will publish additional figures showing deaths involving Covid-19 in care homes&comma; based on reporting from operators to the Care Quality Commission&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<div style&equals;"padding-bottom&colon;15px&semi;" class&equals;"wordads-tag" data-slot-type&equals;"belowpost">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<div id&equals;"atatags-dynamic-belowpost-68ed1210bd589">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<script type&equals;"text&sol;javascript">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;window&period;getAdSnippetCallback &equals; function &lpar;&rpar; &lbrace;&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;if &lpar; 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