UK surpasses Italy death toll but experts warn comparing countries is difficult

&Tab;&Tab;<div class&equals;"wpcnt">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<div class&equals;"wpa">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<span class&equals;"wpa-about">Advertisements<&sol;span>&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<div class&equals;"u top&lowbar;amp">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<amp-ad width&equals;"300" height&equals;"265"&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab; type&equals;"pubmine"&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab; data-siteid&equals;"111265417"&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab; data-section&equals;"2">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;<&sol;amp-ad>&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<&sol;div>&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<&sol;div>&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;<&sol;div><p>The UK has passed Italy as the country with the most Covid-19 deaths in Europe&comma; new figures show – but academics have warned that cross-country comparisons are &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;difficult”&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The latest data from the Office for National Statistics &lpar;ONS&rpar; shows that 29&comma;710 deaths involving Covid-19 in England and Wales had been registered up to May 2&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><&excl;--Ads1--><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Together with the latest equivalent numbers for Scotland &lpar;2&comma;272 deaths registered up to April 26&rpar; and Northern Ireland &lpar;393 deaths registered up to April 29&rpar;&comma; it means a total of 32&comma;375 deaths involving Covid-19 have now been registered across the UK&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The official number of Covid-19 deaths in Italy stood at 29&comma;079 as of 6pm on May 4&comma; according to the Italian Ministry of Health&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The full picture in both countries will not be known for some time&comma; however&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>With governments and health authorities across Europe taking different approaches to recording deaths – and the potential of some Covid-19 deaths not being recorded at all – it is impossible to know exact comparable death tolls at this stage&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>And even in the UK&comma; there are different ways of measuring deaths involving Covid-19&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><&excl;--Ads2--><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>The total number of Covid-19 deaths announced each day by the UK Government is not based on death registrations&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Instead it is the number of deaths that have been reported so far in all settings where there has been a positive Covid-19 test&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Professor Sir David Spiegelhalter&comma; chairman of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge&comma; said&colon; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;The one thing we can be certain of is that all these numbers are substantial underestimates of the true number who have died from Covid&comma; and an even bigger underestimate of the number who have died because of the epidemic and the measures taken against it&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;I think we can safely say that none of these countries are doing well&comma; but this is not Eurovision and it is pointless to try and rank them&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<blockquote><p>Approaches to recording deaths can vary greatly from country to country&comma; such as the data entered on to a death certificate<&sol;p><&sol;blockquote>&NewLine;<p>&OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;For example&comma; apparently around half of Belgium’s deaths are people in care homes who have not been tested&comma; and these would not feature at all in the daily UK figures&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;I believe the only sensible comparison is by looking at excess all-cause mortality&comma; adjusted for the age distribution of the country&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><&excl;--Ads3--><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;And even then it will be very difficult to ascribe the reasons for any differences&period;”<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Dr Michael Head&comma; senior research fellow in global health at the University of Southampton&comma; said&colon; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;It is important to remember that cross-country comparisons are difficult&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;Approaches to recording deaths can vary greatly from country to country&comma; such as the data entered on to a death certificate&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;The UK records direct and indirect causes of death plus also other contributing factors&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;There may be variation in how doctors record the impact of Covid-19 in any individual death on to those certificates&comma; and this practice can vary from country to country – for example&comma; are suspected Covid-19 cases included in the death statistics or is it purely confirmed cases&quest;”<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Italy went into lockdown on March 9 when Italian Premier Giuseppe Conte extended restrictions from the north to the entire country in an attempt to stop the spread of Covid-19&comma; after the country’s death toll climbed to 463&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p><&excl;--Ads4--><&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Boris Johnson placed the UK in lockdown on March 23&comma; after the number of people who died in British hospitals after testing positive for the virus stood at 335&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<blockquote><p>I would say that making international comparisons is an unbelievably difficult thing to do<&sol;p><&sol;blockquote>&NewLine;<p>At the weekend&comma; UK national statistician Professor Sir Ian Diamond said Britain has the &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;best reporting” of death data&comma; as he also cautioned against making international comparisons&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Asked if the UK was heading for the worst death toll in Europe&comma; he told BBC One’s The Andrew Marr Show&colon; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;I wouldn’t say that at all and I would say that making international comparisons is an unbelievably difficult thing to do&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>&OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;In this country&comma; we have – in my opinion&comma; and let me be clear I would say this&comma; wouldn’t I – but I think we have the best reporting&comma; the most transparent reporting&comma; and the most timely reporting&comma; because we include death registrations – we’ve been pushing our death registration reporting as fast as we possibly can&period;”<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>He added&colon; &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;I’m not saying that we are at the bottom of any potential league table – it’s almost impossible to calculate a league table – but I’m not prepared to say that we’re heading for the top&period;”<&sol;p>&NewLine;<p>Sir Ian also said indirect deaths that come on top of Covid-19 deaths are &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;not insignificant”&comma; and warned that a &OpenCurlyDoubleQuote;lengthy and deep recession” could lead to increased deaths&period;<&sol;p>&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<div style&equals;"padding-bottom&colon;15px&semi;" class&equals;"wordads-tag" data-slot-type&equals;"belowpost">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<div id&equals;"atatags-dynamic-belowpost-68e26901e57b0">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;<script type&equals;"text&sol;javascript">&NewLine;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;&Tab;window&period;getAdSnippetCallback &equals; 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