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Thursday, February 2, 2023

Markets close weaker as investors price in more rate hikes

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Inflation is close to it’s peak, as CPI data suggests going from 10.4% to 10% over November, but rate hikes are still on the horizon.

ECB’s Philip Lane told Milano Finanza inflation was likely close to its peak but it remains too early to say whether inflation has peaked. Lane also noted that ECB is proactive with their monitary policy and it is much closer to target level.

Amidst a strong labor market, global markets are still forecasting further rate hikes, however some (like the Fed) are suggesting they won’t be as aggressive as previous rate decisions. In Europe, Bloomberg noted that markets are pricing in a 50 bp rate increase next week.

In Europe, macro data supported the inflation peak narrative as Germany factory orders increased 0.8% vs 0.1% expected month-on-month.

Focusing on Europe, the Russian oil price cap settled at $60/bbl last Friday after Poland dropped opposition. This follows after a new deal was constructed to speed up a new package of sanctions against Russia. OPEC+ have kept their production levels unchanged.

In currency markets, last week the US dollar index fell 1.2% releasing the pressure applied to currencies like the Yuan and Euro. This trend has continued over the past few months and is near June ’22 levels.

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